Donald Trump recently made headlines after promising a $2,000 dividend payment to nearly all Americans, excluding high-income earners. The pledge was delivered through a Truth Social post in which Trump defended his tariff policies and claimed they were generating “trillions of dollars” in revenue for the government. He argued that this revenue, which he said came with “almost no inflation,” would fund large public benefits such as paying down national debt and distributing dividends.

Despite the bold promise, Trump did not provide any timeline for the payments or define what qualifies as “high income.” As a result, immediate skepticism emerged from economists, analysts, and the public. The Guardian examined the feasibility of such payments, highlighting the monumental financial challenge associated with distributing $2,000 per person.

The cost of the program was estimated between $300 billion and $513 billion, depending on eligibility rules. Tax analyst Erica York noted that tariff revenue brought in roughly $90 billion—far below what is needed for the promised dividend. Even with optimistic projections, the gap between tariff-generated revenue and the rebate cost remains substantial.

Legal obstacles also threaten the proposal. Trump’s tariff strategy, which he claims would fund the payments, is currently under scrutiny by the U.S. Supreme Court. Several lower courts previously ruled the presidential use of emergency powers to enforce tariffs illegal. If the Court ultimately strikes down the tariffs, any associated dividend system would collapse.

Trump later updated reporters, saying the payments would begin “next year,” meaning 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent responded more cautiously, stating that legislative approval would be required before any such payouts could occur, leaving the promise uncertain.

Trump has a history of making sweeping promises, but this one stands out: unlike policy vows, financial promises of $2,000 per person are unlikely to fade from public memory if they remain unfulfilled.